RBC Canadian Open

RBC Canadian Open

It was a fantastic week for us at the Charles Schwab Challenge as we hit the jackpot with 200/1 selection Davis Riley.

To those who follow the PGA Tour closely it has been obvious for a couple of years or so that Riley is a player of huge potential, however after a stellar 21/22 season where he nearly won at the Valspar he had lost his way over the past 12 months or so. Over recent weeks though he had started to turn things around after returning to his old swing coach and with his connections to Texas and his past course form it made him an appealing long shot.

As we know more often than not these big priced plays will end in disappointment but you only need one to land once in a while at these sort of odds to make them pay and Riley certainly delivered the goods here as he closed out a five shot victory over world number one Scottie Scheffler.

So onwards we go in great spirits and it’s time to head north for the RBC Canadian Open.

In 2019 the RBC Canadian Open moved from its historical slot the week after the British Open to being played the week before the US Open. This year though its all change again for the event as it jumps a week earlier on the schedule with the Memorial event now sandwiched between this stop and the US Open.

 The RBC Canadian Open was first played in 1904 and has been played continuously since, bar breaks during WWI and WWII and then over the past two years.

The event is the third longest standing on the PGA Tour calendar behind the US Open and Open Championship.

The event has historically hopped around different courses in Canada however since 2013 it has been played at Glen Abbey GC in Oakville, Ontario every year apart from in 2014. In 2022 though it move to St George’s G&CC in Toronto, Ontario, a venue which last hosted this event in 2010, while last year year we remained in the Toronto area as Oakdale Golf & CC plays host for the first time.

This year though we return to the Ontario area and Hamilton G&CC. This years venue last played host in 2019 when Rory McIlroy triumphed while previously to that we were here in 2012 when Scott Piercy was the victor.

The market is dominated by Rory McIlroy who triumphed here in 2019, while he Northern Irishman is then followed by Tommy Fleetwood who came so close last year, Sahith Theegala and Shane Lowry.

COURSE

Hamilton G&CC GC is a par 70 measuring just under 7100yds.

The greens are poa annua with their main feature being their slopes.

The course, which was designed by Harry S Colt opened in 1915 and this will be the seventh time it has held the RBC Canadian Open. The two most recent times the event was held here were 2019 & 2012.

An Englishman Colt has been responsible for many designs including the West Course at Wentworth and redesigns in the UK including that of Royal Portrush in 1932, Royal Liverpool and Muirfield.

The course is a classic parkland design situated on the edge of the Niagara Escarpment.

There are two Par 5s, the 4^th  and 17^th, which at 542yds and 580yds respectively are both reachable, while the par 4 5^th at 346yds can be played as driveable.

This year we  will see a course, which has undergone further redesign since 2019 with an attempt to bring the course back more to the original Harry Colt feel. From that point of view more trees have been removed, bunkers redesigned and more run off areas around the greens created.

HISTORY

With a course in play that has only been seen twice since 2010, we should probably not put too much stock in event form other than from 2019 & 2012, however form ‘north of the border’ is of course a positive so for what it’s worth I have listed the winners of the event going back to 2010.

The winners of these events have been as follows;

2022    N Taylor

2021    R McIlroy

2019*    R McIlroy

2018    D Johnson

2017    J Vegas

2016    J Vegas

2015    J Day

2014    T Clark

2013    B Snedeker

2012*  S Piercy

2011    S O’Hair

2010    C Pettersson

*Denotes events played at this year’s venue.

Taking a closer look at the two leaderboards from the 2012 & 2019 editions that were held here and we see that in 2012 finishing in joint second place there was Robert Garrigus and William McGirt. The rest of the top ten was made up of Josh Teater, Bud Cauley, Chris Kirk, VJ Singh, Bo Van Pelt and Scott Stallings.

At first glance you would think that there really is nothing playing style wise, which would link this list together, after all you couldn’t get two golfers further apart than Robert Garrigus and William McGirt! However whilst there is no real link that ties this list together from a ‘style’ point of view once I dug a bit further I did find something quite striking in relation to the form coming in to the week of those who made up the top five, which was that they were all right on top of their game at the time.

In the case of the winner Scott Piercy he had finished 3^rd and 12^th in his previous two starts. McGirt one of the co runners up had finished 5^th last time out, while the other co runner up Garrigus had been 25^th and 4^th in his previous two starts. Furthermore the next players down the board Teater, Cauley and Kirk had finished 9^th, 4^th and 10^th respectively in their previous starts.

Moving on to 2019 and while the champion here Rory McIlroy had missed the cut in his previous start had finished eighth in both of his two starts prior to that. Runner up Shane Lowry meanwhile had been eighth in his previous start at the PGA and third a couple of starts prior to that at Hilton Head. Meanwhile Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker who made up the remaining positions in the top five had all been in strong form coming in with Kuchar in particular having posted four top 12 finishes in his previous five starts.

Looking at that 2019 leaderboard and while McIlroy can win anywhere of course it is clear that short hitting ‘tee to green’ specialist  who thrive on par 70 courses are not unsurprisingly at home here. The aforementioned, Kuchar, Simpson and Snedeker are all perfect examples of this, while Graeme McDowell who finished in eighth is another nod to this.

From a correlating course point of view then it is easy to join the dots with tracks like Hilton Head, Sedgefield CC and Waialae CC.

WEATHER FORECAST

Some rain early in the week could well soften conditions up however touch wood by Thursday things look to have settled down for a dry week with the exception of a possible shower or two on Sunday. Temperatures look set to sit in the low 70s.

Wind could be an issue though as with the exception of Saturday there is the potential of 20mph+ gusts across the week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

SHANE LOWRY –22/1 - 2pts e/w 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 33rd

First up this week I will return to a player I have fond memories of backing here in 2019.

On that occasion Shane couldn’t quite get the job done however he gave us a great run for our money before coming up short to Rory McIlroy.

I speculated in the lead up to that week that whilst the course was described as parkland, reports I had read state that many trees have been removed to return it more to the original feel intended by designer Harry S Colt. Well since that edition the course has undergone a further redesign and with more trees removed and run off areas added around the greens to encourage more short game imagination this really looks perfect for Shane.

In addition with Colt responsible for many redesigns of renowned links courses this course does, although described as parkland, have an element of a links feel to me and this of course should fit Lowry’s game.

To take this connection further then we only have to look at Shane’s finest hour, which came sat Portrush, which had been subject to a Harry Colt redesign while Shane also has a superb record at another of Colt’s original designs, Wentworth.

I noted earlier that strong form coming in here has been key in the previous two editions at this venue and with Shane arriving on the back of his sixth place finish at Valhalla he certainly ticks that box.

Finally if the wind does pick up a bit here through the week as forecast we know the Irishman is better equipped than most to cope.

All in all then Lowry ticks an awful lot of boxes for me this week and he is a must for me  to have onside.

ADAM HADWIN  45/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up for me is Adam Hadwin.

Siding with Canadian’s in their home event is of course a logical step, however until last year’s triumph for Nick Taylor it had not reaped any real dividends. This year though it might just be that Hadwin can be inspired by what his close friend achieved last year and can bag a long overdue second tour title.

A look at Adam’s 2024 results shows some inconsistent form however he has hit the frame on three occasions at the Amex, The Genesis Invitational and most recently at the Valspar.

A look back then at Hadwin’s track record in his home Open shows us that rather than shrink in the spotlight he seems to raise his game in the event. Last year for example he arrived home on the back of four missed cuts and nothing better than 34^th in his six previous stroke play starts before posting 12^th, while in 2019 when he was sixth at this venue opening up with rounds of 65, 66 & 67 to sit one shot out of the lead through 54 holes, he again had been in no great form coming in. Focusing further on that 2019 effort and it was noted by his coach that week how much Adam liked the course.

Granted Hadwin’s stats this year don’t make great reading but I have a hunch he’ll rise to the occasion once more on home turf and make a bold showing to succeed his good friend Taylor as the champion.

CT PAN -  150/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 35th

Next cab of the rank for me this week is CT Pan.

CT started his journey to the PGA Tour via the PGA Tour of Canada and having notched two wins in eight starts north of the border in 2015 he is always on my radar when the tour heads back that way. Furthermore, and to show just how comfortable he is in Canada Pan has finished third last year and 14^th in 2017 in his two starts in this event.

A one time winner on tour CT has struggled over the past couple of years with a wrist injury and 2024 is yet to see him hit any great heights, with one notable exception, a third place finish in Mexico. With only two missed cuts in nine starts though since that third place there has been a lot of steady golf and as we know the margins between 40^th and the top five on the tour from one week to the next are fine.

In addition last week at Colonial it was noticeable Pan’s approach play improved considerably over the weekend on his way to 37^th place.

With his one tour win coming at Hilton Head we certainly have a nice line to the steady type of ‘kuchar’ player we are looking for this week and I am happy to take CT to step up in Canada once again.

TYLER DUNCAN– 200/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 24th

Another player who caught my eye last week is Tyler Duncan.

On what was a tough scoring Sunday at Colonial Duncan closed out the week with a one under 69 ranking third in approach play on the final day. It may just be then that Tyler ‘found something’ to wrap up his week in Fort Worth.

A  slight leap of faith of course but if that is the case Duncan is exactly the kind of steady short hitter who could thrive here.

Languishing at 174^th in the Fedex standings Tyler needs to get his skates on if he wants to retain his card. A tall order then, however he has shown us over the years that he is quite capable of popping up with big finishes out of the blue. A look at last year shows us a third on the Par 70 PGA National, which links well here with Lowry, a third at the Corales and another third place at the RSM, home of his one tour win. Notably all of these three results came when in poor form on paper on arrival.

As a player then who thrives on this kind of test I’ll take Tyler to build on his good closing round at Colonial and deliver a much needed big result here.

HAYDEN BUCKLEY –  300/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED MC

Finally, while it may transpire that least weeks out of the blue fifth place from Hayden Buckley was a one off effort there is enough correlating pointers flashing away at me that make me want to side with him here at huge odds.

Firstly that effort from Hayden was a reminder that he is by far at his best on a short par 70 track. To flesh that out he has a fifth place to his name to the ZOZO, and pertinently for this week, his finest hour to date was a runner up spot at the Sony Open as well as a 12^th at the same event. That particularly catches my eye as 2012 winner here Scott Piercy is another Waialae runner up, while Kuchar and Snedeker who performed well here last time are Waialae specialists.

Furthermore he has a fifth on the par 71 Hilton Head track, again a course that Piercy, Kuchar and Lowry have good history on.

Meanwhile and away from the PGA Tour Hayden started out on the PGA Tour of Canada posting six top tens in 12 starts in 2019 including a win so he should certainly be comfortable this week.

We’ve seen from Buckley before that he can follow one good week with another so while a lot of his score was built around his putter last week I’ll take a chance that he can take the confidence from that effort and produce another strong performance.